Coronavirus (2019-2020) – The Reality and Future

Where are we today with the novel Coronavirus 2019-2020 or SARS-Cov-2?.

    If the data reported worldwide with respect to the number of cases per day for the last four months is to be believed, then the novel Coronavirus seems to be establishing its foundation strongly to stay with the humans for a long time. The major issue in believing the data of daily new total cases arises from two aspects, (1) the cases are related to number of tests carried out but the testing is limited to certain boundary conditions imposed by various factors and it varies between countries and (2) several asymptomatic patients probably are not tested yet and they are spreading the virus without knowing that they are infected. Further to these two, the following factors also affect the reported data each to varying degree:

  1. number of tests carried out in 24 hours period;
  2. category, group and environment of candidates tested (critical);
  3. method and principle followed for testing including selection of persons for testing (critical);
  4. testing of infected persons who are asymptomatic:
  5. quality and accuracy of tests;
  6. percentage of false negative results (critical);
  7. accuracy of reporting;
  8. the validity of a negative test is not beyond the time of sample taken for the test as the person can get infected immediately after the sample was taken;
  9. re-infection of already cured persons;

    This paper is reflecting the SARA-CoV-2 impact on a global scenario using data considered until 7 th Aug 2020 and is not limited to a single or particular country.

    Today, the world is an interconnected global village. The current pandemic is a global issue and it is not enough if only few countries get free of the SARS-CoV-2. Isolated or scattered victory against the virus is immaterial. If the virus is not eradicated worldwide, then the risk of re-emergence of the virus will always loom on any country or region as they cannot be in isolation forever and at some point of time, every country needs to open up for commerce, trade and economy. Hence, I believe that we need to review the entire global model as a single entity with respect to this pandemic and not focus on a single country or a region.

Fundamental Flaws in the Current COVID-19 Management

    Fundamentally, people always were looking for flattening of the curve from day one to ease the lock downs but I never understood the logic behind it as “flattening” does not mean the virus is getting “eradicated”. It only shows that the spread is reducing but it is not truly getting eradicated. I would logically look for a decelerating declining curve that becomes truly flat (not flattening) and stays flat for a considerable period of time for at least 90 days as a minimum without any new cases of infection. Only when the curve is absolutely flat for 90 days as a minimum with zero new cases, we could say that the virus spread has been truly eradicated. However, this is also subject to the quality, quantity and appropriateness of testing to confirm new cases.

    Flattening curve alone cannot be considered as the criteria for easing the lock downs because this virus can spread easily even from a few infected persons to a larger number as the transmittability of the virus is high. The R factor, a crucial unit to evaluate the “spread potential” of the virus is higher than 1.0 from several reports (some as high as 3.0). The way the virus is spreading on a daily basis seems to confirm that the R factor indeed is higher than 1.0. In that case, even if the declining curve is decelerating, are we safe? The simple answer is no. Due to the high transmittability of the virus, even if only few persons have the virus, if the lockdowns are eased and people are allowed to come closer ignoring the protocols, the virus can spread to many others causing a second wave. The community transmission is already occurring in several countries as per WHO. I am not sure what strategy the countries globally are considering with respect to the mechanism of virus spread and the feasibility of a second wave into consideration for easing the lockdowns and opening of beaches, bars, clubs, sports, malls and wedding halls. At least in commercial and business establishments and office environments, one could expect some discipline for virus response protocols but in the entertainment, hobby and showbiz centers, the discipline is a big question mark. Some of the religious festivals due to the huge crowd that gather will pose a major challenge to adhere to the protocols. Schools are much at risk as children cannot be expected to hold and sustain the protocol for the entire day.

    Thirdly, the asymptomatic nature of the virus is a critical measure that is not common in other infections the world has faced so far. This particular aspect of the novel Coronavirus 2019-2020 cannot be ignored because the asymptomatic infected persons can also spread the virus without knowing that they have the virus. There is no ambiguity that the number of people tested in the world is far too less as of today and reaching out to all the people is an impossible and impractical task. If someone is asymptomatic, there is no reason for him/her to test voluntarily unless the testing is done through mandatory measures taken by the local authorities or governments for every individual whether they show symptoms or not. However, it is impractical to reach out to all the people for a test. Hence, the reported number of cases which is dependent on the total tests done cannot be a valid number and due to this the virus spread possibly is much higher than what is reported.

    Hence, using the flattening curve model to ease the lockdown measures may prove to be a flaw. The data that needs to be looked at is the gradient of change of new cases which is basically the change in number of cases on a new day as compared to the previous day. This only will provide the consistency matrix of the virus spread rather than the total cases curve.

Statistical Model

    If you look at the graph below in Fig.1, from 22 nd Jan 20 until 5 th Aug 20, which indicates the cumulative total infected cases worldwide on the left and the total new cases daily on the right, it is clear that the spread of the virus is increasing continuously. There is no indication of the trend changing towards a flattening and declining trend. The right side chart that shows the total new cases daily is changing constantly moving up and down but the average line is a continuous up climbing trend.

    Fig.2 below provides a further disturbing scenario. The daily new recoveries is less than the new cases. The daily new cases is well above the 200,000 mark for almost all days of July 20 reaching close to 300,000 mark towards the last week of July 20. This was nearly four months after severe lockdown measures imposed by the countries across the world.

    Let us take some individual countries for review.

    Fig.3 shows the cumulative total cases for the top three countries, USA, Brazil and India, which had crossed two million infected persons. The graph is still climbing upwards and there is no sign of any declining trend as of 1 st week of August 2020. None of these countries have achieved a true flattening curve in the last four months or so.

    Fig.4 shows the daily new cases for the same three countries, USA, Brazil and India. The chart shows that the total new cases daily is changing constantly moving up and down but the average line is a continuous up climbing trend.

    Let us now look at the countries who declared a flattening curve and eased the lock downs. A clear second wave has started within two months of holding the near flattening curve and France for example never actually reached a near flattening level.

    Only very few countries out of nearly 82 countries with infected cases above ten thousand, had achieved a near flattening curve. Even those countries are showing a second wave of increase with new cases recorded from July 2020. New Zealand who declared almost virus free is showing signs of gradually increasing new cases.

    Fig.5 clearly demonstrates that flattening is not the right logic to ease the lockdowns as after few months, a second wave probably is progressing.

    Similarly look at the Fig. 6 which provides the total deaths in the same countries considered in the Fig.3 above. The graph is still climbing upwards and there is no sign of any declining trend as of 1 st week of August 2020. None of these countries have achieved a true flattening curve in total deaths also in the last four months or so. This means that the fatality rate is not actually reducing down.

    All of the above, clearly indicate that the fundamental flaws which was discussed earlier cannot be ignored.

Note:

    A question may arise why certain regions within a country or a country itself that has achieved a near flat line with very low daily infected cases are not considered in the discussion here. The biggest issue in considering specific parts of a country or a set of few countries is that they are not isolated from others in a global level. They cannot be kept in isolation forever and at some point of time, they need to open up. When that happens, there is a high potential for a second wave exist. These regions or few countries have achieved the low value of infected cases not because of attaining community wide immunity but because their lock down measures worked more effectively.

    Victoria state of Australia is the greatest example. Victoria as well the whole country had very low daily new cases (less than 30 daily new cases) for nearly three months and then a second wave started. Victoria is now in a strict lockdown. Please see Fig.7 below for Australia’s daily new cases. For few months, the number of daily new cases was almost zero and then suddenly a sharp climb upwards.

    The data for Fig.3 to Fig.7 was gathered from www.wordometers.info .

Gradient of Change Model – The Right Way to Evaluate

    I am not an epidemiologist to run predictive models for virus spread in the future based on several variables like the currently available data, seasonal conditions throughout the year, cross-immunity and sustainability etc. However, mathematically, I believe that the only way to be confident that the virus spread is reducing truly is to obtain a decelerating gradient to reach a zero line as the base curve. Such model, based on actual number of total cases from 1 st Mar 20 to 7 th Aug 20, is presented in Fig.8 below.

    The Fig. 8 shows the increase of number of cases on a new day as compared to the previous day worldwide.

    The chart was prepared by the author but the data for the above chart was gathered from www.ourworldindata.org

    The gradient of change shown in Fig.8 above clearly demonstrates that the data is inconsistent throughout for the last five months. The rate of change of new cases as compared to the previous day varies by a significant percentage. There is no consistency of increase or decrease even for a period of two 2 weeks continuously. A similar behaviour can be observed if we make the chart for individual countries also. This only shows that the data of number of daily cases is inconsistent due to several factors as explained in the beginning of this paper. Hence, we need to agree that the data of total daily new cases will contain an inherent margin of error and we need to evaluate the progress of the virus based on consistency matrix rather than the magnitude of total values.

    Although the gradient of change and consistency matrix are a common inference to apply in such highly variable virus spread cases, the world is applying the flattening curve model for declaring freedom from Coronavirus and easing of lockdowns despite all the intelligence on such concepts. The obvious reasons probably are pressure for commerce, economy and the inability to manage effectively the economic disparity created by the unsustainable economic growth model driven by the capitalistic regime of the past four to five decades.

Let us look at an example below to understand this clearly.

On 30 th of July 20:
(a) the total number of cases worldwide on 30 th July 20 298,082
(b) the total number of cases worldwide on the previous day 29 th July 20 243,620
(c) the increase in number of cases on 30 th July 20 as compared to the previous day 54,462
The chart shows the number 54,462 for the date 30 th July 20.
On 31 st of July 20:
(a) the total number of cases worldwide on 31 st July 20 290,446
(b) the total number of cases worldwide on the previous day 30 th July 20 298,082
(c) the increase in number of cases on 31 st July 20 as compared to the previous day -7,636
The chart shows the number -7,636 for the date 31 st July 20.

    The gradient of change in Fig.8 from 1 st Mar 20 to 7 th Aug 20 clearly is inconsistent. It is not increasing or decreasing continuously. It moves up and down to be positive or negative. If the number is above the zero line at the center, it means that the number of cases on a new day had increased by a value as compared to the number of cases reported on the previous day. If it is below the zero line, then it means the number of cases on a new day had decreased by a value as compared to the number of cases reported on the previous day.

    Fig.6 clearly shows that between 1 st March 2020 to 7 th August 2020, the gradient is negative (below the zero line) for 63 days but the it is positive (above the zero line) for 97 days.

    Even during the strict lockdown measures imposed by several countries worldwide between 15 th Mar 20 to 15 th June 20, the gradient is negative (below the zero line) for 35 days but the it is positive (above the zero line) for 58 days.

    Hence, understanding of the gradient curve rather than the magnitude of total cases is extremely critical to evaluate the behaviour of the virus spread. The Fig.8 shows that at no point of time from 1 st Mar 20 until today, the world had reached the true flat line. Few countries might have achieved that but it is not going to be helpful as a second wave is always a high possibility as soon as the lockdowns are eased as shown in Fig.5 and Fig.7.

    As long as the gradient value is above the zero line in Fig.8, it indicates that the virus spread is not coming down and that reaching an absolute flat line is not possible. Only when the value stays below the zero line for a long time consistently, there is a chance of reaching the absolute flat line in the total cases.

    Mathematically, a theoretical curve can be developed assuming certain factors just to demonstrate the point. Considering the current worldwide daily total cases (early Aug 20) of around 280,000 and that the rate of change of new cases daily reduces by 3% per day constantly without a change, it would take nearly 14 months to achieve an absolute flat zero line and the gradient change graph will then look like Fig.9 instead of how it is in Fig.8. In Fig. 9, from day one, the gradient value is always below the zero line until the absolute zero line is reached by the curve after nearly 435 days. If the reduction is a constant 2% per day, then it would take nearly 22 months to achieve the absolute flat line of zero.

    However, such constant reduction on a daily basis is impossible and impractical as the actual scenario will be more or less look like the Fig.8. Also it is impractical to hold everything under locked conditions for several months in a world of commerce and economic growth combined with the need to manage the enormous economic disparity between the top 30% and the balance 70% of the people who comprise the middle class, poor, poverty and extreme poverty categories, especially the two billion people who are below the poor/poverty line and depend on daily wages to survive.

    Hence, the Fig.9 is only a theoretical chart to show the true declining gradient curve that is required to achieve full eradication of the virus. It is not a predictive model considering all variables for such prediction. The zigzag up and down scenario depicted in Fig.8 is not a constant declining curve but that is what will occur in the real scenario and hence eradication of virus in totality based on naturally occurring herd immunity without a vaccine is uncertain and/or would take a long time with potential for significant consequences.

    The only way to achieve the consistency of the gradient of change data is to apply a global level consolidated and integrated effort to define the testing and reporting system. While the efforts for a vaccine is widespread globally and also being made speedily by several institutions and organizations, the same level of consolidated effort is not reflected in improving the testing strategies and components. required to improve the authenticity and completeness of the data value on infected cases. Virus vulnerable countries with huge population, number of densely located population areas, poor and under poverty communities where the adherence to response protocols might lapse, regions of extensive movement of people for commerce or trade or jobs and people who demand freedom of movement in defiance to the protocols must be considered as critical and every possible help must be extended through few centralized global organization(s) to ensure consistency, uniformity and reliability to report the progress of the virus spread. The magnitude of resources and budget required to extend the test to reach maximum population at the shortest time is enormous especially in several countries that have huge population, large geographical area and resources and budget restraints. There is no purpose to indulge in a globalization model for commerce, economy and profits for decades and then suddenly decide to become isolated within one’s own borders to combat a pandemic virus that is affecting the entire humanity at global level. No individual country or region is safe from the virus however protected they are as unless the virus is eradicated globally frequent outbreaks or additional waves will happen as soon as that country or region opens up for business and commerce.

Where We Stand

    The world had gone into an irreversible globalized unsustainable economic model due to the drive of the commercialism, consumerism and materialism fueled by the capitalistic regime of the last four decades. The pressure to sustain the economy combined with the exploding population and nearly 30% of poor people among them has resulted in serious challenge to manage the Coronavirus process. Due to this despite all the technological advancements of the world, even the leading developed countries are struggling to combat the virus effectively.

    It is not practical for the world to shut down completely to achieve hundred percent lock down for months. The life needs to be adjusted to a new normal with strict protocols to avoid any collapse of the system. Hence, the countries will resort to controlled ease of lockdown in phases leading to a new normal life. I don’t think there is any other way than this but how will that affect the pandemic and human life?

Natural Herd Immunity (without Vaccine)

    The first consideration is developing a herd immunity without a vaccine. As the virus spreads to a large number of people, there is a possibility that a natural resistance and immunity against the virus may get developed. However, there are few huge risks in this approach. First of all, this model may not work successfully but may lead to a significant number of infected persons and deaths. For this model to work, at least 60%, if not more, of the population needs to get infected. This means in a population of nearly 7.7 billion, nearly 4.6 billion need to get infected. With the current fatality rate of around 3% of the infected persons, this will result in nearly 138 million deaths. If it happens, it will be the worst disaster the world had ever faced in the last ten thousand years although smallpox had killed nearly 300 million people in the 20 th century. Further, at the current rate of around 280,000 new cases per day and assuming an average compounding increase of cases at 1% per day, it would take nearly 17 months to infect 60% of the people. This may not happen practically as the variables and factors affecting the spread of virus requires a simulation using predictive models by experienced epidemiologists. I have only used a linear mathematical model with minimum variables to demonstrate the length of time to require achieving the natural herd immunity without a vaccine. I am confident however, that the mathematical estimates may not be far off from the predictive models.

    However, the time required to infect majority of the people to get a herd immunity and the huge loss of life to be paid to achieve that without a guarantee that herd immunity would work is not practical and acceptable in the modern 21 st century with its advanced science, technology and medical engineering. If at all this is allowed to happen, it may be successful in small communities in scattered areas. However, this cannot be sustained in a larger scale because in today’s world there are no small independent communities. Everyone is connected somehow due to the expanded global model of the commercial world.

Vaccine and Immunity

    The second and most desired consideration the whole world is praying for is a vaccine for the pandemic. A vaccine if given to large number of people, then it can develop a herd community with a smaller number of deaths and with more chance of a success. However, I am not sure if a vaccine will be available in the near future. The world has not found a vaccine so far for the SARS virus of 2002-2003 which is also from a Coronavirus family. Similarly we don’t have a vaccine yet for MERS 2012 which also from a Coronavirus family. It is almost 19 years after SARS 2002-2003 and 8 years after MERS 2012 but we don’t have a vaccine for any of them yet. The current pandemic COVID-19 is also from a Coronavirus family and the strain was identified less than seven months ago. Common cold is also from a virus mutation of Coronavirus family and we have been struggling to get a permanent vaccine for cold for innumerable years. So why do we think, talk and display that a vaccine is under way for SARS-CoV-2 and will be available in the near future?

    Further, the SARS-CoV-2 virus seems to grow into multiple mutations and for such a virus finding a vaccine must be extremely challenging. Although probably more than hundred different attempts are being made currently globally to find a vaccine with at least ten of them moving into third stage of clinical trials, no one today knows if a vaccine will become successful and approved for mass production and consumption. Based on the past experience of developing vaccine for viruses, it takes years, may be beyond ten years, to complete the various stages of clinical trials before a vaccine can be used on a mass scale to population. Media is expanding and exploding its coverage on vaccine optimism exhibiting breaking news that a vaccine is just around the corner within the next few months, politicians are expressing confidence on the vaccine even displaying target dates for the vaccine while investors and businessmen are making hot deals that are hundreds of millions or even billions of dollars’ worth before a proper and rigorous testing trials on the vaccines are concluded. However, no one really knows if a vaccine can be produced in the near future with all the necessary trails and testing process completed without a short cut in the name of fast track strategy and even if one is produced, if that will be safe and effective without side effects. There is no guarantee that a vaccine can eradicate this virus immediately. Even with a vaccine, it may take years to develop a global immunity.

    Governments and businessmen may be able to push the regulatory agencies to fast track approvals but I am not sure whether it is scientifically correct. However, this question can only be answered by the scientists and virologists and I am confident that they would agree to my statement. Secondly even if a vaccine is found, it would take at least a year or most likely two to produce adequate volumes for distribution across the world without a bias towards developed and rich countries. It is also not guaranteed that a fast track vaccine can provide a complete and effective protection against the SARS CoV-2.

    Further, by the time a vaccine is available to majority of the people say in about one or two years, the virus would have run its course on humanity by that time and at that stage we don’t know what impact that would have created by then. It may also be too late for a vaccine to be effective because the virus might have mutated further which may require a new or modified vaccine. I believe that the scientific world is under tremendous stress to deliver a vaccine in a fast track manner under political and commercial pressure and I am not sure if that is going to work from scientific, compliance and conformance perspectives.

    The risk that arises from a fast track approach without going through the rigorous testing process required for a vaccine for a virus like SARS-CoV-2 is that the vaccine may not work against the virus to eradicate it fully. It may help to fight the disease in some way but we cannot know today how long the vaccine will be effective against the virus. Worst case it may be only partially effective which means it cannot be trusted. Thirdly it may be too early to understand the side effects and other consequences of the vaccine in a human body especially to the children, aged, elders and chronic disease patients. Further, if the virus is not eradicated fully in an infected person, he may still spread that to others inadvertently.

    All these points may be challenged but we don’t even know today if the virus can re-infect after an infected person is cured, how long the anti-bodies will last, what is the true incubation period (we have a range of 2-14 days, some even talk about 28 days), we don’t certainly know if an asymptotic infected person can spread the virus, how transmittable the virus is, will virus keep mutating and finally what are all the symptoms of the virus as they are still evolving. So with so many unknowns on even the basic characteristics of the virus, the uncertainties of a safe and reliable vaccine are only additions to the already existing long list of unknowns. So I am not sure if any challenges to defend the possibility of a 100% successful vaccine in the near future will stand hold.

    The news on vaccine in the near future provides lot of hope but hope sometimes can backfire badly with negative consequences. Without concrete reality, giving hope to people is not a good strategy as people may become careless with the confidence of a vaccine that seems to be imminent. So we need to part this vaccine story until it is proven beyond any doubt and aspirations of few.

    Practically nearly 150 vaccine candidates are under research and development and close to 25 have started trials on humans. Around 5 or 6 are close to start the 3rd phase of the trials that will test tens of thousands of people. In a normal process, this will take several months. Hence, I believe that a vaccine, that is tested and approved in all aspects is at least six months away. Then the mass production, distribution, allocation and administering to public worldwide is an expensive matter as well as massive time consuming effort which would take at least another 6 to 12 months. So we cannot expect a vaccine to become available to public in most parts of the world at least not before the second half of 2021. As mentioned earlier, the efficacy of the vaccine to cure and eradicate the virus is also uncertain at this stage and so waiting for the vaccine may or may not bring the protection expected from it.

    What are we left with for immediate future?

What Are We Left with for Immediate Future?

    I do not think we have many choices and options to choose and decide what we want to do.

    Governments, WHO, scientists, virologists and micro-biologists are striving hard to find a solution to the SARS-CoV-2 virus eradication. However, as the solution is not in sight at least as of today and with the natural herd immunity is not preferred, vaccine based herd immunity is still a major uncertainty and the world cannot be shut down completely for months or years, we are left with one option. That is to live with the virus.

    Living with the virus for longer time means we need to endure its impact. The lockdowns may need to get extended for several more months and economy will continue to suffer globally. People at the edge (lower middle class, poor, under poverty) will suffer further without the means to sustain and survive. Businesses worldwide will turn into loss making ventures and bankruptcy numbers will increase. Lack of employment and employee layoffs will worsen. Governments will be under pressure for expanding the welfare and healthcare systems. The economic disparity will widen and there may possibly be riots, protests, processions and demonstrations. Lot depend on the hope given by politicians, media, governments and some research labs on the vaccine but the truth is we don’t know if that will happen.

    Living with virus becomes further complicated due to the fact that we still don’t know many aspects of the virus. Predominantly we don’t know the following as a minimum:

  1. how long the antibodies will last once an infected person is cured?
  2. will the cured infected person will be re-infected?
  3. does the virus spread through aerosols or microdroplets and in air?
  4. how much social distancing is adequate?
  5. is mask necessary at all times?
  6. will the virus spread more in winter than summer?
  7. do we know all the symptoms of the virus beyond the few we have prescribed now?
  8. do we understand the full impact of the virus on a human body as we receive new information regularly as the days progress?
  9. will the subsequent mutations of the virus turn more virulent and lethal? is there a risk of fatality rate increasing from the current 3%?
  10. will the current Coronavirus mutation become less deadly in time? can it become seasonal like the
    common cold that catches people once in a while?
  11. will humans infect animals and birds to create new animal
  12. can the virus transfer from animals to human even after it is fully eradicated from humanity?

    Do we have answers for at least few of the questions listed above? The simple answer is no. We are still studying the current Coronavirus of 2019-2020 and it is too early to determine an answer conclusively for any of the questions.

    One thing we know, however. Compared to SARS-CoV-1 (2002-2003) and MERS-2012 which killed around 10-11% and 34-36% respectively, the fatality rate of SARS-Cov-2 (COVID-19) is around 3% only as of now. However, the SARS-CoV-1 and MERS-2012 did not spread as easy as the COVID-19. So there seems to a correlation between the fatality rate and transmittability and they seem to be inversely proportional. If this holds true, the COIVD-19 may not become more virulent and lethal than what it is now. However, it is a pure hypothesis based on inference of the behaviour of the SARS-CoV-1 and MERS-2012 and untested data on COVID-19 as its mutations may either become weaker or stronger in time. So the truth is we don’t know today how the SARS-CoV-2 will turn out in the future.

    Another thing that is perplexing is the large number of asymptomatically infected persons of SARS-CoV-2. This phenomenon is not seen in other viruses. The perplexity is that as the common cold is also from a Coronavirus family, is there a possibility that those asymptomatic persons had developed some kind of immunity from the Coronavirus family of the common cold in a span of several years. Is this the reason for such large number of asymptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infected persons? An answer to this question requires much more data and research but whatever is the reason, the asymptomatic persons are always a risk as they can be carriers of the SARS-CoV-2 without knowing that they are infected. As it is impractical to reach out to the entire population to cover every possible asymptomatic case

What We Need to Do?

    Learn to live with the virus as part of our life while waiting for a vaccine or until the virus wanes itself after running its course through humans probably is the only way left for us today because it is impractical and impossible to stay indoors under complete lockdown conditions for several months. Some privileged rich may be able to do that but not the 70% of the people who comprise the middle class, poor, poverty and extreme poverty lines. Secondly a country cannot shut down indefinitely allowing the erosion of the foundations of economy that includes the welfare and healthcare systems and create a massive slide towards economic meltdown, misery and despair.

    What we need to realize is that vaccine or miracle treatment is not anywhere in the near future for all the population of the world. Even if a vaccine is found within the next six months, it would take at least 1-2 years to reach the global extent. Hence, our life must be designed to live and survive as if there is no vaccine. If vaccine becomes available, it will be a bonus.

    For the last three to four decades, we have been engaging in several activities most of which are not necessary for our life. We could have lived comfortably without several needless hobbies and interests that demand your time, effort and money. We indulged in a lifestyle that pushed everyone to borrow and live on credits. We spent our money on meaningless depreciating assets and unnecessary materials just by falling meekly to well defined branding and targeted marketing. We were allowed to borrow even beyond our means to buy assets and properties (subprime) by the lenders including banks. So although living only a borrowed life on credits, we presumed that we all lived in high life standards which pushed us further to expand into other expensive habits and practices including spending heavily on tourism, some even by borrowing. Building of self-image became an obsession and we spent significant efforts and time to achieve a false celebrity status through the recently exploded social media. I can list a lot of unwanted things that not only made you spend your hard earned money but also to waste your precious time and effort but I believe you would understand the factors.

    The SARS-CoV-2 virus, although has brought a halt to our normal life, one way had helped the humanity. It has demonstrated and taught the humans how to live without exotic, dreamy and needless things. We have learnt in the past four months of extended lockdowns, bans and border closures:

  • to live at home on weekends without going for an expensive mall trip, lunch or dinner, a movie or weekend retreat;
  • to spend time with the family at home without the need of weekend parties and clubs;
  • to cook exotic recipes for the family instead of throwing money at hotels and restaurants;
  • to work from home instead of commuting for hours to go to work or even purchases;
  • to depend on homemade remedies and natural healing process instead of running to a hospital for every small ailment;
  • to live hygienically and to enhance our immunity system;
  • to eat and drink healthy foods and drinks;
  • to exercise, do yoga and pranayama at home without throwing huge sums of money at gyms;
  • to maintain social distance and avoid close contacts with strangers which otherwise have become a social norm in the last few decades;
  • allowed us to pursue long forgotten passions;
  • to do several more things at home that allowed us to save money, time and efforts;

    Instead of throwing away what we have learnt in the last four months during the extended lockdowns caused by the impact of the Coronavirus SARS-CoV-2, if we continue to live with all the precautions and protocols to prevent SARS-COV-2, then our life can slowly return to a new normal. We may not return to the pre-SARS-CoV-2 levels of normalcy for a long time but by strictly adhering to the protocols with a new normal, we can at least come out of suffocation, uncertainty and anxiety and look progressively forward with confidence and strength.

    However, the new normal cannot be accomplished without the effective control and management of the welfare and support of the people who are at the edge. The principles of SARS-CoV-2 protocols may be applicable for people above the upper middle class but those at the lower middle class, poor and under poverty lines, nearly two-three billion people or at least 15% to 30% in each country (an average, as the percentage may vary between developed to poor countries) will not be able to sustain long term lockdown measures and lack of employment and wages. Governments and non-governmental organizations need to develop a well-defined strategy to ensure that the system is sustained for at least another six months and to bring complete awareness to follow the protocols. This will be a big strain to the budget due to an already falling economy but the stimulus packages announced by the governments must allocate considerable portions to provide the required support to the people at the edge and not heavily weighted only towards business establishments, commercial organizations and other profit making venues to sustain economy. Without the effective management of people at the edge, any measures to combat the virus will fail and a failure in one part of a region or country or the world will only lead to a return of the virus with subsequent outbreaks and waves as soon as the system is opened for normal business.

    One thing we all need to remember is that while it is critical to develop our body’s immune system by natural elements against the SARS-CoV-2 virus, it is also important that we don’t overdo it. We have a habit of overdoing things which has been inculcated into our beings from our birth and was enhanced by commercialism and consumerism concepts of capitalism. That is why we overeat or drink junk foods, sugary sweets, carbonated drinks, alcohol etc knowing well that they are bad for health. We do the same on the good side of things also. We have not learnt the system of equilibrium and balance required by the body and mind. We need to break this habit of over doing things going forward and learn the balanced way of life. I think the COVID-19 has taught us the need to balance our life that was consistently exiting the path of discipline leading us all to a stressful life. I believe if we apply our learnings of the last four months under the lockdown period, we will be able to gradually reduce the stress in our life.

Conclusions

    SARS-CoV-2 may be here with us for a long time and getting infected is not safe as we don’t have answers for several questions on the after-effect of the virus to our health, body and life. Our aim must be to “Prevent-Prevent-Prevent” and not “Test-Trace-Treat”.

    Prevention hence must be our goal and life must be designed around that concept.

Author:

     J. Muthu Kumar is an expert in upstream oil and gas industry with nearly thirty three years of core expertise in integrated project management, project delivery, cost optimization, risk assessment and mitigation. He is not a virologist or scientist or microbiologist or a medical professional. However, using his experience in evaluating risks, he applies his learnings gained in his career on mathematical, analytical, logical and cognitive analysis to investigate complexities and complex systems. This paper is an attempt to understand the SARS-CoV-2 and its impact on humanity.

Contact:
jmk@jmuthukumar.com

Disclaimer:

    This paper has been published with all reasonable efforts taken to make the material error-free. The Author of this paper does not guarantee the reliability, accuracy or completeness of the content published herein and do not make any representations or warranties of any kind, express or implied, including but not limited to the implied warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose. The Author of this paper shall not be liable whatsoever for any errors, omissions, whether such errors or omissions result from negligence, accident, or any other cause or claims for loss or damages of any kind, including without limitation, indirect or consequential loss or damage arising out of use, inability to use, or about the reliability, accuracy or sufficiency of the information contained in this paper.

    No part of this paper shall be used, reproduced in any manner whatsoever without written permission from the author, except in the case of brief quotations embodied in critical articles and reviews.

Share Article :

Leave a Comment

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *